Welcome to your 43rd issue of the Quiet Empire Newsletter. Your newsletters will be arriving in your in box every Tuesday and Saturday (Specifically chosen because for most of us, Mondays are chaos and Saturday is a good catch up day)
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Last Time the Market Was This Expensive, Investors Waited 14 Years to Break Even
In 1999, the S&P 500 peaked. Then it took 14 years to gradually recover by 2013.
Today? Goldman Sachs sounds crazy forecasting 3% returns for 2024 to 2034.
But weāre currently seeing the highest price for the S&P 500 compared to earnings since the dot-com boom.
So, maybe thatās why theyāre not alone; Vanguard projects about 5%.
In fact, now just about everything seems priced near all time highs. Equities, gold, crypto, etc.
But billionaires have long diversified a slice of their portfolios with one asset class that is poised to rebound.
Itās post war and contemporary art.
Sounds crazy, but over 70,000 investors have followed suit since 2019āwith Masterworks.
You can invest in shares of artworks featuring Banksy, Basquiat, Picasso, and more.
24 exits later, results speak for themselves: net annualized returns like 14.6%, 17.6%, and 17.8%.*
My subscribers can skip the waitlist.
*Investing involves risk. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Important Reg A disclosures: masterworks.com/cd.
In todayās issue:
When something fits, it rarely announces itself.
Thereās no surge of confidence.
No sense of certainty that needs sharing.
Itās quieter than that.
Most people expect clarity to feel energizing.
But for thoughtful people, it usually feels settling.
The internal conversation changes.
You stop asking whether you should continue.
You start wondering how much attention it deserves.
Thatās an important distinction.
When something fits, you donāt need to convince yourself to return to it.
You donāt rehearse reasons.
You donāt negotiate with your calendar.
It simply stays in view.
Another sign is the absence of urgency.
Thereās no pressure to turn it into something quickly.
No need to justify it to anyone else.
Youāre comfortable letting it develop at its own pace.
That patience isnāt hesitation.
Itās trust.
Hereās a subtle but reliable indicator:
When something fits, it doesnāt ask you to become louder, faster, or more certain than you already are.
It allows you to show up as you are nowānot as a version youāre trying to reach.
This is why the right work often feels almost ordinary at first.
Not thrilling.
Not validating.
Just sustainable.
If youāre paying attention, youāll notice when something stops feeling heavy and starts feeling obvious.
Thatās usually the moment worth honoring.
If youāre curious how I personally approach thisāwithout launches or pressureāIāve written more about it here.
Itās there if useful.
Thank you for spending time with Quiet Empire this week.
Patrick
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